· Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Oravské Veselé vs Novohrad Lučenec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Oravské Veselé and 1.15 for Novohrad Lučenec, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Oravské Veselé the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oravské Veselé home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novohrad Lučenec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oravské Veselé to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Oravské Veselé and 1.15 for Novohrad Lučenec, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Oravské Veselé
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fomat Martin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Kalinovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Považská Bystrica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Novohrad Lučenec · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 1-1 (D)
Novohrad Lučenec
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fomat Martin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Kalinovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Medzibrod · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 29 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Fomat Martin | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Čadca | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 5 | Fiľakovo | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oravské Veselé | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 | Podkonice | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 10 | Rimavská Sobota | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 13 | Sokol Medzibrod | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.