· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Oravské Veselé vs Sokol Medzibrod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Oravské Veselé and 0.98 for Sokol Medzibrod, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Oravské Veselé the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oravské Veselé win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oravské Veselé home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sokol Medzibrod away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oravské Veselé to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Oravské Veselé and 0.98 for Sokol Medzibrod, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Oravské Veselé
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fomat Martin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Kalinovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Považská Bystrica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Novohrad Lučenec · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 1-1 (D)
Sokol Medzibrod
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Kalinovo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rimavská Sobota · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Novohrad Lučenec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dolný Kubín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Fiľakovo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Čadca | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Podkonice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Rimavská Sobota | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Oravské Veselé | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Sokol Medzibrod | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oravské Veselé win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.