Ordabasy vs Zhenys Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Ordabasy and 0.75 for Zhenys, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Ordabasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Ordabasy win

64.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ordabasy home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zhenys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ordabasy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Ordabasy and 0.75 for Zhenys, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ordabasy win64%

Draw22%

Zhenys win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.6%
2–012.7%
1–110.2%
2–19.6%
3–08.0%

Recent form

Ordabasy

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)

Zhenys

2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	14	6	6	16	48
4	Okzhetpes	28	14	6	8	5	48
5	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	11	8	8	1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	1	40
8	Ulytau	27	9	8	10	-6	35
9	Kaspiy	27	9	5	13	-8	32
10	Zhenys	28	8	8	12	-9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	7	7	14	-10	28
12	Atyrau	26	5	11	10	-7	26
13	Irtysh	27	6	8	13	-11	26
14	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	-18	25
15	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24
16	Altay	27	5	8	14	-14	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ordabasy win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.