· Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Ordino vs Penya Encarnada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Ordino and 1.65 for Penya Encarnada, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Ordino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ordino win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ordino home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Penya Encarnada away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Ordino
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carroi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ranger's · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 3-2 (W)
Penya Encarnada
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Esperança d'Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa de Portugal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Ordino 0-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-12-07T10:00:00.000Z · Ordino 2-4 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-11-06T13:30:00.000Z · Ordino 4-3 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-05-11T11:30:00.000Z · Ordino 1-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-01-19T17:30:00.000Z · Ordino 0-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2024-10-20T11:30:00.000Z · Ordino 0-0 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2024-03-03T17:30:00.000Z · Ordino 1-2 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2023-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · Ordino 1-0 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2023-10-22T11:30:00.000Z · Ordino 1-2 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2023-04-02T09:00:00.000Z · Ordino 1-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Ordino | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ordino win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.