Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.55 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Falkenbergs FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Falkenbergs FF win

46.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orebro SK home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkenbergs FF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Falkenbergs FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Orebro SK and 1.55 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Orebro SK win28%

Draw25%

Falkenbergs FF win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–110.4%
1–29.3%
0–28.1%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Orebro SK

2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljungskile SK · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)

Falkenbergs FF

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Varnamo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	28	19	5	4	40	62
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	28	8	9	11	-1	33
11	Helsingborg	28	8	8	12	-11	32
12	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
13	Norrby IF	28	5	12	11	-10	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Falkenbergs FF win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.