Behrn Arena · Referee Per Martin Melin, Sweden · Analysis updated 23:56 UTC
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.06 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Orebro SK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Orebro SK home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ljungskile SK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orebro SK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Orebro SK and 1.06 for Ljungskile SK, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.8% vs market 40.3%, edge +11.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +11.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.8% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 70.1% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.6% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 27.3% | 3.66 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.0% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -11.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Orebro SK
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 1-1 (D)
Ljungskile SK
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs IK brage · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkenbergs FF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Norrby IF · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 2-3 Ljungskile SK (Superettan)
Superettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 59 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Ostersunds FK | 28 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 42 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -6 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 38 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 32 |
| 12 | Helsingborg | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | -12 | 26 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 28 | 6 | 1 | 21 | -46 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.