Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.65 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Varbergs BoIS FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Varbergs BoIS FC win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orebro SK home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varbergs BoIS FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Orebro SK win27%

Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.0%
1–29.5%
0–28.3%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Orebro SK

2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 1-1 (D)

Varbergs BoIS FC

2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkenbergs FF · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 0-0 Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)
2025-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)
2025-04-07T17:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 1-2 Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)
2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)
2024-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)
2021-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 0-3 Varbergs BoIS FC (Allsvenskan)
2021-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · Orebro SK 0-1 Varbergs BoIS FC (Allsvenskan)
2020-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · Orebro SK 1-2 Varbergs BoIS FC (Allsvenskan)
2020-07-12T12:30:00.000Z · Orebro SK 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC (Allsvenskan)

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varbergs BoIS FC win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.