Orel vs Metallurg Lipetsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Orel and 1.95 for Metallurg Lipetsk, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Metallurg Lipetsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Metallurg Lipetsk win

54.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orel home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Metallurg Lipetsk away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metallurg Lipetsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Orel and 1.95 for Metallurg Lipetsk, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Orel win24%

Draw22%

Metallurg Lipetsk win55%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.8%
0–18.3%
0–28.1%
1–36.3%

Recent form

Orel

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 2-0 (W)

Metallurg Lipetsk

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	10	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	-1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	3	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	-10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	-8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	-16	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	-13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	-20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	-25	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	-42	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Metallurg Lipetsk win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.