Estadio 9 de Mayo · Referee Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano, Ecuador · Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Orense SC vs Emelec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Orense SC and 1.09 for Emelec, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Orense SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Orense SC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Emelec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orense SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Orense SC and 1.09 for Emelec, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Orense SC
- 2026-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad Catolica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guayaquil City FC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Leones del Norte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 1-2 (L)
Emelec
- 2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Aucas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente del Valle · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 57 |
| 3 | LDU de Quito | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 52 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 51 |
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 50 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | -2 | 43 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -12 | 38 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 32 | 10 | 3 | 19 | -15 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -23 | 27 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.