Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.88 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Hammarby FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hammarby FF win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orgryte IS home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hammarby FF away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Orgryte IS and 1.88 for Hammarby FF, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Orgryte IS win28%

Draw23%

Hammarby FF win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.4%
0–17.3%
2–16.9%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Orgryte IS

2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 3-1 (W)

Hammarby FF

2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	15	3	7	29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	14	4	6	29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	11	5	9	-2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	10	7	8	-3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	-9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	-4	33
11	Gais	24	8	6	10	5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	5	8	11	-12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	-18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	5	5	15	-20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	-25	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby FF win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.