· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Oriental vs Fenix Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Oriental and 1.20 for Fenix, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Fenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fenix away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Oriental and 1.20 for Fenix, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.1% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 33.1% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.35 | 38.0% | 38.3% | 2.61 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 71.6% | 71.7% | 1.39 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.8% | 28.3% | 3.53 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 67.4% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -0.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Oriental
Fenix
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay Montevideo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boston River · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Atenas | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 41 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 36 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Colón | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 36 |
| 5 | CA River Plate | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Oriental | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Paysandu | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
| 9 | La Luz | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Fenix | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Miramar | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 12 | Sportivo Huracan | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Tacuarembo | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -14 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.