· Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Oriental vs Racing Montevideo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Oriental and 1.24 for Racing Montevideo, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Oriental the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriental win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriental home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Montevideo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriental to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Oriental and 1.24 for Racing Montevideo, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Oriental
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay Montevideo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CA River Plate · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenix · 3-2 (W)
Racing Montevideo
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Boston River | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Danubio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | CA River Plate | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriental win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.