Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Oriental and 0.94 for Uruguay Montevideo, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Oriental the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Oriental win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oriental home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriental to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Oriental and 0.94 for Uruguay Montevideo, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Oriental win59%

Draw23%

Uruguay Montevideo win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.4%
1–110.7%
2–010.5%
2–19.9%
3–06.5%

Recent form

Oriental

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay Montevideo · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CA River Plate · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenix · 3-2 (W)

Uruguay Montevideo

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oriental	6	4	1	1	3	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Fenix	6	3	2	1	6	11
4	Sportivo Huracan	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Colón	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	La Luz	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Miramar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Paysandu	6	1	1	4	-3	4
12	Atenas	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	-4	3
1	Atenas	24	13	5	6	13	44
2	Plaza Colonia	24	10	7	7	6	37
3	Rentistas	24	10	7	7	5	37
4	Colón	23	10	6	7	2	36
5	La Luz	24	9	7	8	-1	34
6	CA River Plate	24	9	6	9	5	33
7	Oriental	24	8	9	7	4	33
8	Cerrito	24	8	9	7	3	33
9	Paysandu	23	9	4	10	0	31
10	Fenix	24	7	9	8	-2	30
11	Sportivo Huracan	24	8	6	10	-8	30
12	Miramar	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	Tacuarembo	24	6	7	11	-9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	5	6	13	-13	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oriental win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.