Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas · Referee J. Revollo · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Oriente Petrolero vs ABB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.20 for ABB, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Oriente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriente Petrolero win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriente Petrolero home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.20 for ABB, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
Oriente Petrolero
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 1-0 (W)
ABB
- 2026-09-25T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 36 | 48 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 35 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 33 |
| 6 | Aurora | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 29 |
| 8 | Nacional Potosí | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 28 |
| 9 | Blooming | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Independiente Petrolero | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -16 | 24 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 21 |
| 13 | ABB | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Universitario de Vinto | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 18 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -24 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriente Petrolero win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.