Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas · Referee R. Castillo · Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Oriente Petrolero vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.86 for Nacional Potosí, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Nacional Potosí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Potosí win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriente Petrolero home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Potosí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional Potosí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.86 for Nacional Potosí, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Oriente Petrolero
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-2 (L)
Nacional Potosí
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Always Ready | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Potosí win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.