Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas · Referee J. Revollo · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.37 for The Strongest, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Oriente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriente Petrolero win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriente Petrolero home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
The Strongest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.37 for The Strongest, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Oriente Petrolero
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 1-0 (W)
The Strongest
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Aurora | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Nacional Potosí | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Independiente Petrolero | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | The Strongest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Potosí | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Oriente Petrolero | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Always Ready | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriente Petrolero win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.