Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera · Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero and 1.40 for The Strongest, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives The Strongest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriente Petrolero home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
The Strongest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Oriente Petrolero
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-2 (L)
The Strongest
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-25T23:30:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 2-1 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 1-1 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 1-2 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 1-2 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2026-03-11T23:30:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 0-3 The Strongest (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-31T00:30:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 2-1 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 2-2 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 0-2 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2025-05-18T23:30:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 3-2 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2024-12-17T00:00:00.000Z · Oriente Petrolero 2-6 The Strongest (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 51 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 37 |
| 6 | Aurora | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -24 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.