Orihuela vs Cieza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Orihuela and 0.80 for Cieza, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Orihuela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orihuela home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cieza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orihuela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Orihuela and 0.80 for Cieza, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Orihuela win42%

Draw31%

Cieza win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–016.5%
0–015.0%
1–113.2%
0–112.0%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Orihuela

2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Fernando CD · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 2-1 (W)

Cieza

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	6	4	0	2	8	12
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	2	3	1	1	9
9	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Orihuela	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Poblense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.