Stadiumi Vora · Analysis updated 12:46 UTC
Oriku vs Tomori Berat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Oriku and 1.44 for Tomori Berat, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Oriku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriku win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriku home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tomori Berat away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Oriku and 1.44 for Tomori Berat, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Oriku
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Memaliaj · 7-0 (W)
Tomori Berat
- 2025-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamurtari · 0-9 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Valbona · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriku · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maliqi · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2nd Division - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzi 2008 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Oriku | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tomori Berat | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Sopoti Librazhd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Butrinti Sarandë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Gramshi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Turbina Cërrik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Devolli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Luftëtari | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Tërbuni Pukë | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Veleçiku Koplik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriku win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.