Orkla vs Nardo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Orkla and 2.73 for Nardo, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Nardo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nardo win

52.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 2.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orkla home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nardo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Orkla win29%

Draw18%

Nardo win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–26.6%
1–26.4%
2–36.0%
1–35.8%
2–14.8%

Recent form

Orkla

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volda · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Herd · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 3-1 (W)

Nardo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strindheim · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NTNUI · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Orkla 0-3 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 2)
2024-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · Orkla 0-0 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 4)
2024-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · Orkla 0-4 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 4)
2023-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · Orkla 1-3 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 5)
2023-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · Orkla 1-4 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 5)
2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Orkla 2-4 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 5)
2022-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · Orkla 0-1 Nardo (3. Division - Girone 5)
2020-02-29T13:00:00.000Z · Orkla 2-1 Nardo (Friendlies Clubs)

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	25	17	4	4	43	55
2	Volda	25	17	4	4	41	55
3	Melhus	25	12	6	7	26	42
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	25	10	3	12	13	33
8	Herd	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	8	5	12	-11	29
10	NTNUI	25	7	8	10	-16	29
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	25	6	5	14	-29	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nardo win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.