USA · Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 1923:30

23:30 UTC

Saturday, 15 August 2026

Exploria Stadium · Referee T. Penso · Analysis updated 18:35 UTC

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Orlando City SC and 2.27 for FC Cincinnati, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Orlando City SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Match result (1X2)

Orlando City SC win40%
Draw19%
FC Cincinnati win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

60%

Model pick

Orlando City SC or Draw

59.6% probability

Medium confidence

Expected goals

2.27 – 2.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals67%
Both teams to score80%

Correct score

  • 2–27.1%
  • 1–26.2%
  • 2–16.2%
  • 1–15.5%
  • 2–35.4%

Why the model likes this

    Recent form

    Orlando City SC

      FC Cincinnati

        Head-to-head

        Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

        Major League Soccer table

        Full league page →
        #TeamPWDLGDPts
        1Vancouver Whitecaps1710432134
        2Los Angeles FC1910451634
        3San Jose Earthquakes1810351333
        4Houston Dynamo181026332
        5Real Salt Lake17836427
        6FC Dallas18765727
        7St. Louis City18756026
        8Portland Timbers18738024
        9Seattle Sounders17737-224
        10Minnesota United FC18666-524
        11Colorado Rapids187110222
        12Los Angeles Galaxy19577-522
        13San Diego18567321
        14Austin18459-1417
        15Sporting Kansas City184212-2814
        1Nashville SC1812422140
        2Inter Miami1811521338
        3New England Revolution18936530
        4Chicago Fire17926929
        5New York City FC18756726
        6FC Cincinnati18756126
        7Charlotte18747225
        8New York Red Bulls18747-1025
        9DC United18585-323
        10Orlando City SC186210-1720
        11Columbus Crew18558-220
        12Toronto FC18387-817
        13Philadelphia Union184410-816
        14CF Montreal184410-1116
        15Atlanta United FC183312-1412

        Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.