Orlando Pride W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Orlando Pride W and 1.78 for San Diego Wave W, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives San Diego Wave W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Diego Wave W win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orlando Pride W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego Wave W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Diego Wave W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Orlando Pride W and 1.78 for San Diego Wave W, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Orlando Pride W win25%

Draw23%

San Diego Wave W win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.7%
0–19.5%
0–28.5%
2–16.3%

Recent form

Orlando Pride W

2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dash W · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Utah Royals W · 1-2 (L)

San Diego Wave W

2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	27	16	7	4	14	55
2	San Diego Wave W	27	16	3	8	12	51
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	12	46
4	Utah Royals W	27	14	4	9	9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	13	5	9	10	44
6	Angel City W	27	12	7	8	16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	12	7	8	6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	13	3	11	11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	12	4	11	1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	10	8	9	8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	10	3	14	-7	33
12	Houston Dash W	26	8	6	12	-4	30
13	Boston Legacy W	27	8	5	14	-10	29
14	Bay FC W	27	7	5	15	-14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	27	7	3	17	-16	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	5	2	20	-48	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Diego Wave W win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.