Stade de la Source · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Orleans vs Caen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Orleans and 1.70 for Caen, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Caen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Caen win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Orleans home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Caen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Orleans and 1.70 for Caen, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Orleans
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Amiens · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Versailles · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 1-1 (D)
Caen
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caen win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.