Orsha vs BATE II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Orsha and 1.25 for BATE II, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Orsha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Orsha win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orsha home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orsha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Orsha and 1.25 for BATE II, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Orsha win47%

Draw24%

BATE II win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.4%
1–09.0%
2–07.5%
1–27.0%

Recent form

Orsha

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uni Minsk · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhter Soligorsk · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna · 1-3 (L)

BATE II

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	30	19	5	6	41	62
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	30	18	5	7	29	59
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Uni Minsk	29	7	9	13	-8	30
15	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
16	Gomel II	30	6	6	18	-20	24
17	Osipovichy	30	6	5	19	-40	23
18	BATE II	29	5	7	17	-29	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Orsha win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.