Orsha vs Smorgon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Orsha and 1.93 for Smorgon, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Smorgon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Smorgon win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orsha home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Smorgon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Orsha win19%

Draw22%

Smorgon win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

0–110.3%
1–110.3%
0–29.9%
1–29.9%
0–36.4%

Recent form

Orsha

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uni Minsk · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhter Soligorsk · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna · 1-3 (L)

Smorgon

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Osipovichy · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lida · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Slutsk · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T11:30:00.000Z · Orsha 1-1 Smorgon (1. Division)
2022-10-08T11:50:00.000Z · Orsha 2-3 Smorgon (1. Division)
2022-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · Orsha 1-1 Smorgon (1. Division)
2020-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Orsha 1-0 Smorgon (1. Division)
2020-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Orsha 0-0 Smorgon (1. Division)
2019-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Orsha 3-1 Smorgon (1. Division)
2019-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · Orsha 2-1 Smorgon (1. Division)
2018-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · Orsha 0-0 Smorgon (1. Division)
2018-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Orsha 2-1 Smorgon (1. Division)
2017-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Orsha 0-2 Smorgon (1. Division)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	27	17	6	4	28	57
2	Niva	27	17	4	6	36	55
3	Lida	27	17	3	7	8	54
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	27	16	5	6	25	53
5	Slonim	27	14	5	8	17	47
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	26	14	3	9	5	45
7	Bumprom	27	12	5	10	11	41
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	27	11	7	9	8	40
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	10	5	10	5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	27	8	11	8	-2	35
11	Volna	27	10	4	13	-10	34
12	Smorgon	27	9	6	12	-3	33
13	Minsk II	27	9	3	15	-13	30
14	Orsha	27	7	6	14	-23	27
15	Uni Minsk	26	6	8	12	-10	26
16	BATE II	27	5	7	15	-25	22
17	Gomel II	27	5	6	16	-19	21
18	Osipovichy	27	5	4	18	-38	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Smorgon win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.