Orsomarso vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Orsomarso and 0.75 for Real Cundinamarca, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Orsomarso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orsomarso home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Cundinamarca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 36% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Orsomarso and 0.75 for Real Cundinamarca, a combined 1.58 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Orsomarso win34%

Draw36%

Real Cundinamarca win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

64%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals47%

Over 2.5 goals21%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–020.7%
1–017.1%
0–115.5%
1–112.8%
2–07.0%

Recent form

Orsomarso

2026-10-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Ind. Yumbo · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Depor FC · 0-2 (L)

Real Cundinamarca

2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional de Bogota · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional Palmira	33	17	9	7	12	60
2	Envigado	35	15	12	8	15	57
3	Quindio	33	16	9	8	9	57
4	Real Cartagena	35	15	11	9	14	56
5	Union Magdalena	33	15	9	9	14	54
6	Tigres FC	33	12	10	11	6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	11	10	6	8	43
8	Bogota FC	33	9	12	12	-7	39
9	Barranquilla	33	10	8	15	-3	38
10	Real Cundinamarca	27	9	9	9	3	36
11	Patriotas	27	9	8	10	-4	35
12	Popayan	27	7	10	10	-2	31
13	Orsomarso	27	7	9	11	-7	30
14	Depor FC	27	5	9	13	-15	24
15	Real Santander	27	4	10	13	-18	22
16	Leones FC	27	4	9	14	-25	21
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	12	7	3	2	9	24
2	Real Cundinamarca	12	7	2	3	8	23
3	Tigres FC	12	6	4	2	9	22
4	Popayan	12	5	3	4	3	18
5	Patriotas	12	5	3	4	0	18
6	Real Cartagena	12	4	4	4	5	16
7	Quindio	12	4	4	4	-2	16
8	Depor FC	12	4	3	5	-4	15
9	Real Santander	12	3	6	3	-4	15
10	Internacional Palmira	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	Envigado	12	2	7	3	1	13
12	Union Magdalena	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Orsomarso	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Bogota FC	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Barranquilla	12	3	3	6	-3	12
16	Leones FC	12	2	5	5	-9	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.