Estadio Municipal Raul Miranda · Analysis updated 20:43 UTC
Orsomarso W vs La Equidad W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Orsomarso W and 1.10 for La Equidad W, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives La Equidad W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.7% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Equidad W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Equidad W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 29% / 31% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Orsomarso W and 1.10 for La Equidad W, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Orsomarso W
La Equidad W
- 2026-08-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pasto W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Nacional W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.