Stadio Luigi Muzi · Analysis updated 06:48 UTC
Orvietana Calcio vs Sansepolcro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Orvietana Calcio and 0.73 for Sansepolcro, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Orvietana Calcio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Orvietana Calcio home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sansepolcro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orvietana Calcio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 32% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Orvietana Calcio and 0.73 for Sansepolcro, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.7%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Orvietana Calcio
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Poggibonsi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Terranuova Traiana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sansepolcro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gavorrano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scandicci · 0-1 (L)
Sansepolcro
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Camaiore · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orvietana Calcio · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Trestina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grosseto · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Robur Siena | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Tau Altopascio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | Seravezza | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Ternana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Lucchese | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Montevarchi Calcio | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Flaminia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Progresso | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.