Estádio Municipal de Cantanhede · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Os Marialvas vs Naval 1893 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Os Marialvas and 0.77 for Naval 1893, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Os Marialvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Os Marialvas win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Os Marialvas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naval 1893 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os Marialvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Os Marialvas and 0.77 for Naval 1893, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.4%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Os Marialvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fátima · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Fornos Algodres · 4-0 (W)
Naval 1893
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Nogueirense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os Marialvas win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.