· Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Os Marialvas and 0.66 for Sertanense, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Os Marialvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Os Marialvas win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Os Marialvas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sertanense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os Marialvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 28% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Os Marialvas and 0.66 for Sertanense, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–012.9%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 63.7% vs market 54.5%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 54.5% | 63.7% | 1.57 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.9% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 54.6% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.7% | 27.7% | 3.61 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.7% | 17.7% | 5.65 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 82.7% | 82.3% | 1.22 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 36.3% | 2.75 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Os Marialvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fátima · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Fornos Algodres · 4-0 (W)
Sertanense
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os Marialvas win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.