· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Os vs Førde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.30 expected goals for Os and 1.65 for Førde, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Os the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Os win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
3.30 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Os home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Førde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 14% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.30 goals for Os and 1.65 for Førde, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.0%
- 2–16.4%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.8%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Os
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fana · 2-3 (L)
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.