· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Os vs Sogndal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Os and 2.00 for Sogndal II, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Os the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Os win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Os home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sogndal II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Os and 2.00 for Sogndal II, a combined 4.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Os
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fana · 2-3 (L)
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.