Hanazono Rugby Stadium · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Osaka vs FC Ryukyu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Osaka and 0.88 for FC Ryukyu, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Osaka win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osaka home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Ryukyu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Osaka and 0.88 for FC Ryukyu, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 53.7% vs market 43.5%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +10.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 53.3% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 78.9% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.2% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.6% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Osaka
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fukushima United · 4-1 (W)
FC Ryukyu
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kamatamare Sanuki · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitakyushu · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Biwako Shiga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Ryukyu | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Osaka win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.