Osasuna II vs Ebro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Osasuna II and 0.80 for Ebro, a combined total of 1.94. That distribution gives Osasuna II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Osasuna II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ebro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osasuna II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Osasuna II and 0.80 for Ebro, a combined 1.94 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Osasuna II win44%

Draw31%

Ebro win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–016.4%
0–014.4%
1–113.1%
0–111.5%
2–09.3%

Recent form

Osasuna II

2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnedo · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 1-2 (L)

Ebro

2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2021-08-28T00:00:00.000Z · Osasuna II 0-2 Ebro (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-02-07T11:00:00.000Z · Osasuna II 0-0 Ebro (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2020-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · Osasuna II 0-0 Ebro (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona B	7	6	1	0	13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	4	2	1	6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	4	1	1	11	13
4	Ebro	7	4	1	2	4	13
5	Olot	7	3	3	1	4	12
6	Manresa	7	3	2	2	6	11
7	Terrassa	6	3	2	1	4	11
8	Girona II	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Reddis	7	3	1	3	-2	10
10	Tudelano	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Barbastro	7	1	4	2	-1	7
14	Utebo	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	Náxara	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Calamocha	7	1	1	5	-12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	0	3	4	-8	3
18	Arnedo	7	0	2	5	-13	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.