· Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
Osasuna II vs Mirandes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Osasuna II and 0.99 for Mirandes, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Osasuna II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Osasuna II win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osasuna II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirandes away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osasuna II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Osasuna II and 0.99 for Mirandes, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Osasuna II
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnedo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 1-2 (L)
Mirandes
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mérida AD · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Ourense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Osasuna II win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.