· Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
Osasuna vs Al Ain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.50 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Osasuna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Osasuna win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osasuna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ain away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osasuna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Osasuna and 1.50 for Al Ain, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Osasuna
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)
Al Ain
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajman · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Osasuna win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.