Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Osasuna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Osasuna win30%

Draw29%

Atletico Madrid win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.2%
1–113.2%
0–010.5%
1–010.5%
0–28.2%

Recent form

Osasuna

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)

Atletico Madrid

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-4 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2026-05-12T19:30:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2025-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2025-05-15T17:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2025-01-12T15:15:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 4-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2023-09-28T19:30:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2023-05-21T14:15:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-3 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2023-01-29T15:15:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
2022-02-19T15:15:00.000Z · Osasuna 0-3 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.