Estadio El Sadar · Referee M. Orellana · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.97 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Osasuna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osasuna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 58.0% vs market 48.0%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 58.0% | 1.72 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 59.3% | 60.8% | 1.64 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.38 | 39.0% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 31.0% | 31.0% | 3.23 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.3% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 30.0% | 29.8% | 3.36 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 70.3% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Osasuna
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2026-01-24T13:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 3-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2025-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · Osasuna 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2025-01-19T17:30:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2024-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-3 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2024-04-20T14:15:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2023-12-15T20:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2023-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2022-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · Osasuna 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2022-02-12T17:30:00.000Z · Osasuna 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.