Yunost Stadium · Analysis updated 10:46 UTC
Osipovichy vs Uni Minsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Osipovichy and 1.85 for Uni Minsk, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Uni Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Uni Minsk win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osipovichy home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Uni Minsk away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uni Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Osipovichy and 1.85 for Uni Minsk, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Osipovichy
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumprom · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Minsk II · 1-1 (D)
Uni Minsk
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostrovets FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slonim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BATE II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhter Soligorsk · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Slutsk | 30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 66 |
| 2 | Lida | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 63 |
| 3 | Niva | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 61 |
| 4 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 56 |
| 5 | Slonim | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 53 |
| 6 | Shakhter Soligorsk | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 45 |
| 8 | Bumprom | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 41 |
| 9 | Ostrovets FC | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Smorgon | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -4 | 39 |
| 11 | Volna | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 12 | Dinamo Minsk II | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 35 |
| 13 | Minsk II | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Orsha | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 30 |
| 15 | Uni Minsk | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | Osipovichy | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | -37 | 23 |
| 17 | BATE II | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -26 | 22 |
| 18 | Gomel II | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -23 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uni Minsk win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.