· Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Osmaniyespor vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Osmaniyespor and 3.57 for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives Yeşilyurt Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win
82.8% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 3.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osmaniyespor home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeşilyurt Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 7% / 10% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Osmaniyespor and 3.57 for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor, a combined 4.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.8%
- 0–37.4%
- 1–47.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 0–46.6%
Recent form
Osmaniyespor
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 0-1 (L)
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelecek Siirt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Adanaspor · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 15 |
| 2 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Ağrı 1970 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Adana Adaletgucu | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Silifke Belediyespor | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Osmaniyespor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 3 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.