· Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Osnabrück U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.40 expected goals for Osnabrück U19 and 1.45 for MSV Duisburg U19, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSV Duisburg U19 win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.40 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osnabrück U19 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MSV Duisburg U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 10% / 26% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.40 goals for Osnabrück U19 and 1.45 for MSV Duisburg U19, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.8%
- 0–216.5%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Osnabrück U19
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs RW Oberhausen U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 · 1-1 (D)
MSV Duisburg U19
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs DJK Bamberg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg U19 win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.