· Analysis updated 08:37 UTC
Osogovo vs Bregalnica Štip Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Osogovo and 1.37 for Bregalnica Štip, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Bregalnica Štip the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osogovo home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bregalnica Štip away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bregalnica Štip to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Osogovo and 1.37 for Bregalnica Štip, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Osogovo
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-0 (D)
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.