· Analysis updated 07:49 UTC
Osogovo vs FK Rabotnicki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.47 expected goals for Osogovo and 1.70 for FK Rabotnicki, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives FK Rabotnicki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FK Rabotnicki win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.47 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osogovo home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Rabotnicki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 10% / 23% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.47 goals for Osogovo and 1.70 for FK Rabotnicki, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 31%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.4%
- 0–216.5%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–19.1%
Recent form
Osogovo
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-0 (D)
FK Rabotnicki
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Rabotnicki win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.