Ospitaletto vs Cittadella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ospitaletto and 1.10 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ospitaletto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ospitaletto win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ospitaletto home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ospitaletto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Ospitaletto and 1.10 for Cittadella, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Ospitaletto win45%

Draw26%

Cittadella win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–011.3%
2–19.0%
0–18.6%
2–08.2%

Recent form

Ospitaletto

2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 1-1 (D)

Cittadella

2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ospitaletto · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	9	8	0	1	12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	5	4	0	10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	5	3	1	9	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Trento	9	4	5	0	7	17
6	Treviso	9	3	4	2	1	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	3	4	2	1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	3	3	3	1	12
9	Alcione	9	2	6	1	-1	12
10	Lumezzane	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Pergolettese	9	2	5	2	-1	11
12	Lecco	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Novara	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	Juventus U23	9	1	4	4	-7	7
17	Athletic Carpi	9	1	3	5	-8	6
18	Folgore Caratese	9	1	3	5	-4	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	0	5	4	-4	5
20	Renate	9	0	4	5	-6	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ospitaletto win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.