Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Ospitaletto vs Lumezzane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Ospitaletto and 0.77 for Lumezzane, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Ospitaletto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ospitaletto win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ospitaletto home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lumezzane away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ospitaletto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Ospitaletto and 0.77 for Lumezzane, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Ospitaletto
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 1-1 (D)
Lumezzane
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ospitaletto win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.