· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Ostia Mare vs Vado Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ostia Mare and 0.98 for Vado, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Ostia Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.1% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ostia Mare home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vado away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ostia Mare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ostia Mare and 0.98 for Vado, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Ostia Mare
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gubbio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Torres · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 2-1 (W)
Vado
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Torres · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Pescara | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atalanta II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Latina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.