· Analysis updated 18:03 UTC
Ostrov vs Hvězda Cheb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Ostrov and 1.80 for Hvězda Cheb, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Ostrov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ostrov win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.90 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ostrov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hvězda Cheb away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ostrov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 17% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.90 goals for Ostrov and 1.80 for Hvězda Cheb, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.2%
- 3–26.0%
- 4–14.8%
Recent form
Ostrov
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Psáry · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 2-2 (D)
Hvězda Cheb
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slaný · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Štětí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Meteor Praha · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sokol Hostouň | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Chomutov | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Újezd Praha 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Rapid Psáry | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Baník Sokolov | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Meteor Praha | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Brandýs nad Labem | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Slaný | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Tempo Praha | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Slovan Velvary | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Karlovy Vary | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Štětí | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Ostrov | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Slavoj Vyšehrad | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Hvězda Cheb | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -19 | 7 |
| 16 | Ústí nad Labem II | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ostrov win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.