· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Ostrov vs Slovan Velvary Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ostrov and 3.08 for Slovan Velvary, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Slovan Velvary the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Velvary win
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ostrov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovan Velvary away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Velvary to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 19% / 16% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Ostrov and 3.08 for Slovan Velvary, a combined 4.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–35.9%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–45.3%
Recent form
Ostrov
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Psáry · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 2-2 (D)
Slovan Velvary
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Labem II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Újezd Praha 4 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Hostouň · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tempo Praha · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sokol Hostouň | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Chomutov | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Újezd Praha 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Rapid Psáry | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Baník Sokolov | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Meteor Praha | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Brandýs nad Labem | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Slaný | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Tempo Praha | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Slovan Velvary | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Karlovy Vary | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Štětí | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Ostrov | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Slavoj Vyšehrad | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Hvězda Cheb | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -19 | 7 |
| 16 | Ústí nad Labem II | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Velvary win, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.