Ostrov vs Štětí Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ostrov and 1.86 for Štětí, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Štětí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ostrov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Štětí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Štětí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 39% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Ostrov and 1.86 for Štětí, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ostrov win39%

Draw22%

Štětí win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.5%
1–27.9%
2–17.8%
2–27.2%
1–34.9%

Recent form

Ostrov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Psáry · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 2-2 (D)

Štětí

2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ústí nad Labem II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Meteor Praha · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	7	1	2	18	22
2	Chomutov	10	7	1	2	12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	6	2	2	5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	6	1	3	12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	6	0	4	8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	5	0	5	0	15
8	Slaný	10	4	2	4	8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	4	2	4	2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	4	1	5	2	13
12	Štětí	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Ostrov	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	2	1	7	-14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	2	1	7	-19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	1	3	6	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.