· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Oţelul vs FC Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Oţelul and 1.72 for FC Bacau, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives FC Bacau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Bacau win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oţelul home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Bacau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Bacau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 24% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Oţelul and 1.72 for FC Bacau, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Oţelul
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)
FC Bacau
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Bacau win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.